AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — Michigan may play a decisive role in a presidential election for the third consecutive time as its voters decide competitive races that could tip the balance of power in both chambers of Congress as well as the state House of Representatives.
The state was one of three presidential battlegrounds, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that went narrowly for Republican Donald Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of supporting Democrats for president. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for Democrats, with a margin in Michigan of about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes cast.
Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris have campaigned heavily in pursuit of Michigan’s 15 electoral votes since becoming their parties’ nominees, with a focus on vote-rich Detroit and its suburbs and Kent County in the west, home of Grand Rapids and a key swing area of the state.
In the U.S. Senate, Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers face off to replace Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow, whose decision to retire after five terms has turned what was once a safe seat for Democrats into a pick-up opportunity for Republicans. Rogers, the former House Intelligence Committee chairman, was recruited out of retirement to enter the race, giving Michigan Republicans a chance to end their 24-year drought in races for U.S. Senate.
Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands since her first election in 2018. Running to replace her in the 7th Congressional District are Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators. Voters in the 7th District narrowly backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Paul Junge are running to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who is not seeking a seventh term. McDonald Rivet is a state senator, while Junge is a former prosecutor and local news anchor who lost to Kildee in 2022.
In the state Legislature, Democrats are defending the narrow state House majority they won in 2022 and reclaimed in April after winning special elections to fill a pair of vacancies. All 110 state House seats are up for election this year. The state legislative campaign organizations for both national parties have listed the Michigan state House as one of its top priorities for November. Democrats also hold a small majority in the state Senate, but those seats will not be up for election until 2026.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Michigan:
Nov. 5.
8 p.m. & 9 p.m. ET. Michigan covers two time zones, so most of the state will start reporting results while some voters in the Upper Peninsula are casting ballots until 9 p.m. ET.
15 awarded to statewide winner.
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (U.S. Taxpayers Party) v. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Natural Law Party) vs. Joseph Kishore vs. Cornel West.
U.S. Senate: Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) and four others.
7th Congressional District: Curtis Hertel (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R) and one other.
8th Congressional District: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) vs. Paul Junge (R) and four others.
U.S. House, state Supreme Court, state House.
A new law gives local elections officials more time to process and tabulate absentee mail ballots, which should help alleviate the logjam that slowed ballot counting in the 2020 presidential election.
Cities and towns with at least 5,000 people may begin processing and tabulating ballots up to eight days before Election Day, while smaller jurisdictions may begin the morning before Election Day.
In 2020, more than 3.1 million voters cast their ballots by mail, about 56% of all ballots cast. State law at the time prevented election workers from opening the envelopes and preparing ballots for the count until the night before Election Day. Trump took an early lead in the vote count on election night, but that lead began to erode overnight and early Wednesday morning and Biden took the lead later that afternoon.
The law change may result in a speedier release of mail voting totals and may mitigate the so-called “red mirage” that Trump falsely claimed was evidence of voter fraud in Michigan and in a handful of other key states.
Some of the key counties to watch in statewide Michigan elections are Wayne (home to Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (home to Grand Rapids), Genesee (home to Flint) and Washtenaw (home to Ann Arbor).
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer. Candidates may request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the cost if the recount changes the outcome. State party chairs may request recounts for state legislative races if the margin is fewer than 500 votes in state Senate races and fewer than 200 votes in state House races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. A new recount law signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.
Although polls in most of the state close at 8 p.m. ET, the AP will not call a winner before the last polls have closed at 9 p.m. ET. In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the AP had tabulated about 8% of the total vote by the time that the last polls closed in the state.
2020: Biden (D) 51%, Trump (R) 48%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 5:58 p.m. ET.
Registered voters: 8,437,177 (as of Oct. 17, 2024).
Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 68% of registered voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 59% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 42% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
First votes reported, Nov. 2020: 8:08 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 45% of total votes cast were reported.
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Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut, Tom Krisher and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
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