Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strike the US Gulf Coast as a hurricane
Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters of eastern Mexico, and mandatory evacuations were issued for some coastal areas in Florida as forecasters predicted it would strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Communities in Isaias' potential path moved quickly to prepare with landfall forecast as soon as Friday evening. Some Gulf oil wells paused production, and at least four Florida school districts canceled classes for later in the week while Okaloosa County announced mandatory evacuations for some coastal areas. Governors in Florida and Alabama declared a state of emergency for dozens of counties.
As it moves inland, Isaias might also disrupt Saturday's college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama — a game President Donald Trump has planned to attend.
Isaias could become a major, Category 3 hurricane with winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or stronger before it strikes land, said Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
“We’re expecting multiple dangerous, life-threatening impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend,” Brennan said in a video briefing Wednesday.
The storm was on track to tie or break a 121-year-old record as the latest arriving initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon formed Wednesday off Mexico.
The Miami-based hurricane center issued a hurricane watch for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. The watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
Brennan said dangerous storm surge could affect an even wider area, from southeast Louisiana to Florida's Big Bend. Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches (7 to 18 centimeters) could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (3 to 8 centimeters) as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.
Isaias was centered about 200 miles (325 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 480 miles (775 kilometers) south-southwest of the Mississippi River’s mouth, according to the hurricane center. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph) and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph (13 kph).
Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE’-ahs, according to the hurricane center) was forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday as it turns northward toward the Gulf Coast. Though its path and timing could shift, the storm was expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
Isaias was expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that is no stranger to major hurricanes. One of the 20th century's worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 ravaged neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.
As of Wednesday about 25% of the oil production in the region was temporarily halted, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms were evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
“I would characterize the oil market risk as moderate, but rising,” Burkhard said in an email.
In Gulf Shores, Alabama, organizers canceled the National Shrimp Festival, which had been scheduled for Thursday through the weekend. The event drew an estimated 325,000 people last year. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach issued a statement encouraging people in low-lying areas to voluntarily evacuate.
Gulf Shores resident Maranie Adams gathered water and other supplies as her family moved belongings, including a hot tub motor, to higher ground.
Adams said she, her husband and two adult sons planned to ride out the storm at home, roughly a half-mile from shore, sheltering indoors alongside their flock of chickens.
“We’re having to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t blow away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be noisy.”
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, saying on the social platform X that, “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take preparations seriously.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state's emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy disaster responders and equipment. The state also planned to deploy a Miami-based urban search and rescue task force.
In Pensacola, electric utilities were pre-positioning crews to quickly repair any power outages. City officials provided sand for residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes against flooding. And Mayor D.C. Reeves urged people to check on older adult neighbors and others who might need help.
“Obviously no need to panic at this point,” Reeves told a news conference. “This is really about preparation.”
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Rico reported from Atlanta, and Collins from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press journalists Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, Julie Walker in New York and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed.
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