FOREX-Dollar struggles near 6-week lows, labor market data eyed

By Jemima Kelly
Reuters

* Unconvincing data dims U.S. rate hike prospects, hurts dollar

* ADP labor market data eyed

* Dollar/yen seen heading towards break of 100 yen threshold

* Bitcoin slides after Hong Kong exchange hack

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to break away from six-week lows against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, kept under pressure by the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later rather than sooner.

The greenback had been on its best run of weekly gains in 1-1/2 years until last week, when expectations that the Fed would clearly signal a near-term rate hike were disappointed, and U.S. growth data came in much weaker than expected.

The dollar index inched up 0.2 percent on Wednesday but at 95.284 remained close to Tuesday's low of 95.003 and was down 2 percent compared with a week ago, before the Fed's policy statement.

U.S. labor market data from ADP due at 1215 GMT will be watched by currency traders ahead of the all-important non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

"The ADP report today should indicate continued labor market strength, and ease concerns over the health of the U.S. economy," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UJF macro strategist Derek Halpenny, in London.

UBS Wealth Management currency strategist Geoffrey Yu said the dollar had been boosted by a risk-off mood in U.S. trading on Tuesday, when indexes suffered their worst day in a month on lower oil prices and lackluster inflation data. But he said any gains on risk-aversion would be capped.

"We're caught in this kind of trap where every time we get nervous about something, the dollar rallies, but then the next thing to think about is: is the Fed going to react to that by pushing out their rate views?" Yu said. "And then you can't afford to be long dollars that aggressively any more. So that's why we have these turns, quite rapidly."

The dollar was up 0.2 percent at 101.08 yen. It slid 1.5 percent the previous day when it fell to a three-week trough of 100.680, amid some disappointment that a meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not result in steps to weaken the yen.

Junichi Ishikawa, currency analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo, said it was a matter of time before the dollar breaks below 100 yen. The dollar briefly slipped below the watershed level in the stormy markets that followed Britain's vote to leave the European Union in June, but it has managed to stay above ever since.

"The break below 100 yen after Brexit was an irregular move. But this time, the yen is gaining steadily on fundamental factors like Japan's improving current account balance and the fading impact of BOJ's multi-dimensional easing," Ishikawa said.

The Japanese central bank eased monetary policy on Friday by upping the amount of its exchange-traded fund purchases, but underwhelmed the markets by holding off from increasing the amount of government bonds its buys every month.

Bitcoin steadied at around $545 after sliding by as much as 25 percent in early trading on Wednesday after a Hong Kong digital currency exchange said it had suspended trading on its exchange after almost 120,000 bitcoin - worth almost $65 million at the current rate - was stolen.

For Reuters new Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets (Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

08/03/2016 7:56