Job losses hit June consumer confidence
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By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
AP Retail Writer
NEW YORK (AP) - Mounting job losses and other economic realities
caught up with Americans in June, pushing down a key barometer of
consumer sentiment after a streak of gains built on glimmers of
hope.
Some economists say the reality check offered by Tuesday's
report from the New York-based Conference Board may not augur well
for spending in the critical months ahead.
The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index now
stands at 49.3, down from its revised May level of 54.8.
The drop coincided with mixed messages in the housing market. A
report from the Treasury Department showing foreclosures jumped in
the first quarter compared with 2008's fourth quarter. But a key
housing price index showed price declines moderating.
Job security - a key factor in shoppers' willingness and ability
to spend - continued to plague consumers surveyed by the Conference
Board. And the Labor Department, which reports June's job data
Thursday, is expected to show unemployment climbed.
``Consumers are making a more somber and accurate assessment of
the economy and their own financial position,'' said Mark Vitner,
senior economist at Wachovia. ``Consumers may be thinking less bad
is not good enough.''
Because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of
economic activity in the United States, economists and investors
watch it closely. The Dow Jones industrials fell 84.1 points, or
0.99 percent, to end Tuesday at 8,448.06 and reverse a small gain
in the morning before the Conference Board report came out.
Both components of the consumer confidence gauge fell this
month. The Present Situation Index of how shoppers feel now about
the economy declined to 24.8 from 29.7 in May. And the board's
Expectations Index, shoppers' outlook for the next six months,
dropped to 65.5 from 71.5.
Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research
Center, said in a statement that the decline in consumers' view of
the current economy implies ``that economic conditions, while not
as weak as earlier this year, are nonetheless weak.''
Consumer sentiment has risen markedly from its new historic low
of 25.3 in February. But confidence is still well below what's
considered healthy. A reading above 90 means the economy is on
solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.
Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had projected confidence
would hold steady at 55 this month after surges in April and May
helped by a stock market rally that has now shown signs of
fizzling.
In May, the figure zoomed 14 points past economists'
expectations to its highest level since September, when it was
61.4. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading
of 42.3 last month.
The rise this spring didn't translate into relief for merchants,
however, and stores are aggressively discounting summer inventory
to keep it moving, though sales declines have moderated in recent
months.
Brian Bethune, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said he
expects the confidence gauge to hover between 50 and 60 this year.
He anticipates a moderate recovery in consumer spending this year
but no significant rebound until 2010.
``The fundamentals of consumer spending are very weak,'' he
said.
Rising foreclosures could derail a turnaround. The Treasury
report said the number of homeowners at least two months behind or
in foreclosure jumped in the first quarter from the previous
quarter.
The report dampened any glimmer of hope coming out of the
Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index, which showed yearly losses in
13 metro areas improved in April compared with March. And the 18.1
percent tumble in the index of 20 major cities in April compared
with the year before marked the third straight month with a decline
that was not a record.
Still, the 20-city index is off almost 33 percent from its peak
in the second quarter of 2006, which means home values are now
around 2003 levels.
Of the households responding by June 23 to a Conference Board
mail survey sent to 5,000 households after June 1, 44.8 percent
said jobs are ``hard to get,'' up from 43.9 percent in May. Those
saying jobs are ``plentiful'' decreased to 4.5 percent from 5.8
percent.
Respondents who anticipate more jobs in the months ahead
decreased to 17.4 percent from 19.3 percent, while those
anticipating fewer jobs increased to 27.3 percent from 25.6
percent.
The Labor Department is expected to report Thursday that the
unemployment rate has risen to 9.6 percent from 9.4 percent in May.
And economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters project that employers
will shed 363,000 jobs, up from 345,000 in May.
Amid these economic woes, consumers are saving more. Instead of
splurging at the mall, households used most of their federal
stimulus payments to boost savings to the highest rate in more than
15 years in May, a government report last week showed.
AP Real Estate Writer J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed
to this report.
06/30/09 16:21
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