Fed again pledges to hold rates at record-lows
By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve pledged Wednesday to keep
a key interest rate at a record low for an ``extended period,''
signaling that the weak economy remains dependent on government
help to grow.
NYSE:FNM Updated: 16:02 ET 1.02 -0.01 |
NYSE:FRE Updated: 16:01 ET 1.14 -0.02 |
The Fed said economic activity has ``continued to pick up'' and
that the housing market has strengthened - a key ingredient for a
sustained recovery.
But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues warned that
rising joblessness and tight credit for many people and companies
could restrain the rebound in the months ahead.
``Economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,'' they
said.
Against that backdrop, the Fed kept the target range for its
bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And it made no major
changes to a program to help drive down mortgage rates.
Commercial banks' prime lending rate, used to peg rates on home
equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will
remain about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.
Still, some credit card rates have risen over the past several
months. In part, that reflects rate increases by lenders in
response to escalating defaults on credit card loans. Lenders also
pushed through increases before a new law clamping down on sudden
rate hikes for credit card customers takes effect early next year.
On Capitol Hill, the House voted Wednesday to accelerate the
enactment date of the new rules to protect consumers from many such
surprise changes. Credit card companies would have to comply
immediately, rather than starting in February, unless they agreed
to freeze interest rates and fees. But the proposal's chances in
the Senate are considered dim.
The average rate nationwide on a variable-rate credit card is
11.5 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Lenders charge more and
credit card customers pay rates higher than the prime because the
debt they run up is riskier.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average at first held
onto an increase of more than 100 points after the Fed's
announcement. But stocks eventually gave up most of their gains in
a late-day slump. It wasn't clear how much of a role the Fed's
statement played. Some analysts noted that investors are nervous as
the release of the government's October jobs report on Friday
approaches.
In normal times, the Fed controls only short-term rates. But
after the financial crisis erupted, the Fed began buying
longer-term Treasuries. Its purchases kept those rates lower than
they'd otherwise be.
This is good news for borrowers with auto loans, some student
loans, 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and some
adjustable-rate mortgages. But it hurts savers and people dependent
on fixed incomes who would normally be enjoying higher yields.
On Wednesday, the Fed stuck with its pledge to keep rates at
``exceptionally low'' levels for ``an extended period.'' Most
analysts don't think the Fed would begin to boost rates until next
spring or summer.
Fed policymakers ``believe they need to keep rates low to ensure
that the recovery doesn't falter,'' said Joel Naroff of Naroff
Economic Advisors.
The central bank hopes low rates will encourage consumers and
businesses to boost spending, which would invigorate the recovery.
The Fed signaled that it can continue to hold rates low because
inflation is all but nonexistent.
The Fed has now entered a new phase: Managing the recovery
rather than fighting the worst recession and financial crisis to
hit the country since the Great Depression.
The economy began growing again last quarter for the first time
in more than a year. But much of that growth came from
government-supported spending on homes and cars. The strength and
staying power of the recovery are uncertain, especially once
government supports are removed.
In such a fragile recovery, a rate increase by the Fed is
unlikely anytime soon, said Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
``Growth does not mean a rate hike,'' Rupkey said.
As with past rebounds, the budding recovery won't likely stop
the unemployment rate from rising. The rate, now at a 26-year high
of 9.8 percent, is expected to hit 9.9 percent on Friday, when the
government releases the unemployment report for October. The
jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent around the middle
of next year before declining, analysts said.
At some point, once the recovery is firmly rooted, the Fed is
likely to start signaling that higher rates are coming. One hint of
an eventual rate hike would be the Fed's changing or dropping its
pledge to hold rates at record-low levels for an ``extended
period.''
It's a delicate task. Boosting rates and removing supports too
soon could short-circuit the recovery. On the other hand, holding
rates low and keeping government supports intact too long could
unleash inflation.
Though it didn't change a program to help drive down mortgage
rates, the Fed did say it will trim its purchases of debt from
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $175 billion, from $200 billion,
because the supply of that debt has declined.
At its previous meeting in late September, the Fed agreed to
slow the pace of a $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage
securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It decided to wrap up
the purchases by the end of March instead of at year-end. So far,
the Fed has bought $776 billion of the mortgage securities.
Its efforts to lower mortgage rates are paying off. Rates on
30-year loans averaged 5.03 percent, Freddie Mac reported last
week. That's down from 6.46 percent last year.
Though the Fed will slow its purchases of mortgage securities,
rates for home loans should remain low - in the 5 percent range- as
long as the purchases continue, analysts say.
11/04/09 17:16
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