Election 2009: Test of Obama clout in NJ, Virginia
By LIZ SIDOTI
AP National Political Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama's political clout was
on the line Tuesday as Virginia and New Jersey chose governors in
contests that could serve as warning signs for Democrats about the
public's mood heading into an important midterm election year.
Elsewhere, Maine voters weighed in on same-sex marriage in a
closely watched initiative, and New York and California picked
congressmen for two vacant seats. A slew of cities selected mayors,
and Ohio voted on allowing casinos.
One year after Obama won the White House in an electoral
landslide and Democrats expanded their majorities in Congress, much
of the focus was on Virginia and New Jersey, where Democratic
control was in danger despite hefty campaigning by Obama himself.
The outcomes were sure to feed discussion about the state of the
electorate, the status of the diverse coalition that sent Obama to
the White House and the limits of the president's influence on the
party's base of support - as well as on moderate lawmakers he needs
to advance his legislative priorities.
As if on cue, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid indicated
Tuesday that lawmakers may not complete health care legislation
this year, missing Obama's deadline on his signature issue and
pushing debate into a congressional election year.
Democratic victories in both Virginia and New Jersey in 2005
preceded big Democratic years nationally in 2006 and 2008.
Tuesday's impact on Obama's standing and on the 2010 elections
can easily be overstated. Voters are often focused on local issues
and local personalities. Indeed, most people in Virginia and New
Jersey, say they're not casting ballots because of their feelings
about the president.
Yet, national issues, like the recession, were clearly a factor,
with voter attitudes shaped to some degree by how people feel about
the state of their nation - and their place in it.
It was also difficult to separate Obama from the outcomes after
he devoted a significant chunk of time working to persuade voters
to elect Democrat R. Creigh Deeds over Republican Bob McDonnell in
Virginia and re-elect Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey,
who was in a three-way race with Republican Chris Christie and
independent Chris Daggett.
While much attention was focused on those races, discussions on
Twitter emphasized the same-sex union initiative in Maine, with the
phrases ``VoteNoOn1'' and ``Maine'' landing in the site's top
trending topics. The measure would repeal a bill passed by the
Legislature allowing same-sex marriages.
The president campaigned in person for both Deeds and Corzine
and was featured in their advertisements. He characterized the two
as necessary allies in the White House's effort to advance his
plans. And he deployed his political campaign arm, Organizing for
America, in an effort to ensure the swarms of party loyalists and
new voters he attracted in 2008 turned out.
He also spent energy trying to ensure the Democrats would pick
up the GOP-held vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New
York, where Democrat Bill Owens faced conservative Doug Hoffman.
That's the race that highlighted fissures in the Republican
Party between conservatives and moderates, illustrating problems
the GOP could have in capitalizing on any discontent with Obama and
Democrats that Tuesday's results may show.
With so much involvement in so few races, Obama raised the
stakes of a low-enthusiasm off-year election season.
Thus, any Democratic losses would be a blot on Obama's political
standing to some degree and would signal trouble ahead as he seeks
to achieve his policy goals, protect Democratic majorities in
Congress and expand his party's grip on governors' seats next fall.
Obama needs all the lawmakers he can get to pass his legislative
priorities of health care and climate change, but defeats Tuesday
could make it much harder for him to persuade moderate Democrats
from right-leaning states and conservative districts, who are
hearing from voters worried about his expansion of government at a
time of rising deficits, to get on board.
Defeats also could tease out upcoming problems for Democrats,
particularly in moderate districts and in swing states like Ohio,
Colorado and Nevada, as they defend their turf next fall. In 2010,
most governors, a third of the Senate and all members in the House
will be on ballots.
Republican victories in one or more races could energize a GOP
that's lost back-to-back national elections, just as it seeks to
raise money and recruit candidates to prepare for next year.
Triumphs, particularly in the open-seat contest in Virginia, could
provide a model for how to win elections in a time of recession and
war.
New Jersey is a traditional Democratic-leaning state with an
incumbent Democratic governor.
But Virginia is a new swing state and has trended Democratic in
recent elections after being reliably Republican in national races
for many years. It's home to a slew of northern bellwether counties
filled with independents who carried Obama to victory last fall,
the first Democrat to win the state in a White House race since
1964. Rapidly growing counties like Loudoun and Prince William,
exurban areas outside Washington, D.C., swung toward Democrats in
the 2005 governor's race, previewing an Obama win three years
later.
A loss in Virginia could suggest that the diverse coalition that
Obama cobbled together last year in Virginia and elsewhere -
blacks, Hispanics, young people, independents and Republican
crossovers - was a one-election phenomenon that didn't transfer to
the Democratic Party when Obama wasn't on the ballot.
11/03/09 17:34
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